HBT Financial (HBT)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
HBT Financial Beats Q4 But Stock Drops 3.5% as Investors Eye CNB Merger Timing
January 26, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent
HBT Financial delivered another quarter of solid execution, beating both EPS and revenue estimates while maintaining exceptional asset quality. Yet shares fell 3.5% as investors appeared focused on near-term headwinds: a slight NIM compression, conservative loan guidance, and the pending CNB merger.
Did HBT Financial Beat Earnings?
Yes — HBT extended its perfect beat streak to 8 consecutive quarters.
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
The $0.65 adjusted EPS compares to $0.60 GAAP diluted EPS. The difference reflects $1.0M of acquisition expenses related to the CNB merger and $0.3M in MSR fair value adjustments.
8-Quarter Beat Streak
HBT has beaten EPS estimates every quarter since Q1 2024:
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
Ask Fintool AI AgentHow Did the Stock React?
Down 3.5% despite the beat — HBT shares fell from $28.56 to $27.57 on the earnings release.
The negative reaction likely reflects:
- NIM compression: Net interest margin (FTE) fell 2 bps to 4.16%, raising questions about 2026 trajectory
- Conservative loan guidance: Loans expected down slightly in Q1 2026 before recovering
- Merger uncertainty: CNB shareholder vote same day as earnings; integration risk remains
Despite today's pullback, HBT shares are up +28% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 600 Small Cap Bank Index (+47% since IPO vs index's +17.8%).
What Changed From Last Quarter?
Key positive: Deposit costs continued to decline faster than asset yields, with the deposit beta in the falling rate cycle at just 13.5% vs. 23.6% in the prior rising rate cycle.
Key negative: Provision for credit losses increased to $1.5M from $0.6M in Q3, though this reflects portfolio growth rather than credit deterioration.
What Did Management Guide?
HBT provided standalone 2026 guidance (excluding CNB):
The guidance assumes two Fed rate cuts during 2026. Management noted that 33% of the loan portfolio reprices within 3 months and 41% within 12 months, providing upside if rates fall faster.
Ask Fintool AI AgentSegment Performance
Net Interest Income
Net interest income rose to $50.5M in Q4 (+1.1% QoQ), driven by:
- Lower funding costs (-6 bps on cost of funds)
- Stable loan yields despite rate cuts
- Securities purchases ($67.4M) to maintain portfolio duration
Loan Portfolio ($3.46B)
Office CRE exposure remains well-managed: none rated substandard, none past due 30+ days, weighted average LTV of 57%.
Wealth Management
Assets under management reached $2.4B, with wealth management revenue trending upward. The segment includes trust services, investment brokerage, and agricultural services (78,000+ acres managed).
Asset Quality: Exceptional
HBT's credit metrics remain pristine:
The 0.07% net charge-off rate for full year 2025 compares to 0.05% in 2024 — both well below the peer median of 0.29%.
Capital & Liquidity: Fortress Balance Sheet
Liquidity sources include $846M in unpledged securities, $1.1B in FHLB capacity, and $109M in Fed discount window access.
If all HTM unrealized losses were marked through equity, TCE/TA would still be a healthy 10.41%.
CNB Merger Update
The $1.5B-deposit CNB Bank Shares acquisition remains on track:
- Shareholder vote: January 26, 2026 (today)
- Expected close: Late Q1 2026
- Integration: Progressing as planned; no material changes to financial expectations
This will be HBT's largest acquisition since the 2023 Town and Country deal, adding significant scale in Central Illinois.
Ask Fintool AI AgentForward Catalysts
Near-term:
- CNB merger closing (late Q1 2026) — accretive if executed well
- Fed rate trajectory — two cuts assumed; more would benefit NIM
- Q1 2026 loan volumes — seasonal weakness expected, need to monitor
Longer-term:
- Chicago MSA expansion — loans grew 5.5% YoY in this market
- Iowa growth — loans grew 5.3% YoY following 2021 NXT acquisition
- Wealth management scaling — $2.4B AUM base with cross-sell opportunity
Key Risks
- CNB integration execution — larger deal requires flawless integration
- CRE concentration — 51% of loans in CRE (owner-occupied + non-owner + multi-family)
- Agricultural exposure — 8% of loans; commodity prices and weather dependent
- Rate sensitivity — 41% of loans reprice within 12 months; faster cuts help, slower hurt
The Bottom Line
HBT delivered exactly what investors have come to expect: another beat, pristine credit quality, and disciplined expense management. The stock's 3.5% drop seems driven more by profit-taking after a strong run (+28% YoY) and CNB merger uncertainty than any fundamental concern.
At ~1.6x tangible book ($17.20/share) and a 13%+ ROATCE, HBT remains one of the better-managed community banks in the Midwest. The CNB merger, if executed well, should drive meaningful EPS accretion in 2H 2026.
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